Four provocative scenarios showing how UK air transport and airport infrastructure could look in 2040 have been set out in a new report published today by the Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE).
Aviation 2040, developed by ICE in conjunction with global built environment specialists ARUP, challenges Government, politicians and industry to take a fresh approach to the long-term development of the UK’s airports and their place in the wider transport system.
ICE believes too much of the public and political discussion on airport infrastructure is short term and based around arguments for and against individual projects, with very little long-term, strategic thinking.
The four scenarios are based on key social, technical, economic, environmental and political (STEEP) factors that could cause dramatic change to our airports and air transport sectors over the next 30 years.
These factors include changes in society’s attitudes to climate change and terrorist activity, rising UK emission levels, population growth, major technological advancements, changes in Government leadership, and economic conditions affecting jobs, disposable income and the cost of travel.
Peter Hansford, ICE Vice President, said: “These scenarios are not predictions for the future; rather they highlight the need for Government, politicians and industry to develop new thinking to take account of the pressures that could dramatically transform air transport and airport infrastructure in the future.
“The Government’s last strategic policy document on aviation came out in 2003. There have been major developments since then, notably the economic crisis and revised climate change and emission reduction targets. It is time to open a serious debate about the need for a long- term national strategy on the UK’s airport infrastructure – one that secures the best outcomes for society, the environment and the economy in the years to come.”
Presenting the scenarios, Simon Godfrey-Arnold, ICE Aviation Expert and Head of Markets at Mouchel, said:
“Planning for the future demand for air transport is generally uncertain, but we hope the creation of the four scenarios will move the discussion beyond some of the immediate talking points surrounding individual projects and encourage a broader consideration of the future shape of UK aviation as a whole. There are a number of very important, strategic questions that need to be resolved now, if we are to provide the infrastructure solutions needed for the future.”
Marcus Morrell, ARUP Foresight Innovation and Incubation, said: “The Aviation 2040 scenarios provide a robust framework for an informed discussion about the future of UK aviation and airport infrastructure. They are not predictions; instead they represent a range of possible outcomes that may play out over the coming decades. Although fictitious, they are drawn from the expert opinions of key industry stakeholders and captured through Arup facilitated workshops. The possible strategy actions developed point to the need to take a more holistic look at mobility before certain critical constraints take hold.”
ICE believe now is the ideal time to instigate a serious debate about the future development of UK airport infrastructure.
The Council for Science and Technology’s recent report A National Infrastructure for the 21st Century found that the “network of networks” that makes up the UK National Infrastructure is becoming increasingly vulnerable to systemic failure and is ill equipped to deal with the socio-economic and climate change challenges of the 21st century.
Elsewhere, on 8 December the Committee on Climate Change is set to publish its latest report advising government on how the UK can reduce gross aviation emissions back to 2005 levels by 2050, and outlining the implications this target will have on further airport expansion.
Finally, the current economic crisis and the forthcoming General Election have focused thinking on the future structure of the UK economy and the transport system that is required to underpin it.