This section will focus upon how the forecasting of severe weather events which aid emergency response and resilience could be improved and/or better co-ordinated. 

It considers the UK’s ability to predict events, and also its ability to respond to events at a National Regional and local level. 

Despite three consecutive years of severe winter weather, the UK does generally experience a temperate climate. However, periods of extreme heat and drought, intense rainfall and extreme cold in the winter are now occurring more often. The flood events of 2007, which caused the country’s largest peacetime emergency since World War II (Pitt, 2007) and 2009 highlighted the unpredictable nature of the British weather and the difficulty and weaknesses in planning for such events. 

These factors make it all-the-more harder to plan and prepare for these events than our European neighbours who will generally expect to face rigorous periods of heat, or heavy rain or snowfall. 

Flood events

In 2007, Sir Michael Pitt was asked to undertake a comprehensive review of the lessons to be learned from the summer floods of 2007. The impact of climate change means that the probability of events on a similar scale happening in future is increasing (Pitt, 2007). Therefore, the Review called for urgent and fundamental changes in the way the country is adapting to the likelihood of more frequent and intense periods of heavy rainfall, and recommended that:

• "There must be a step change in the quality of flood warnings. This can be achieved through closer cooperation between the Environment Agency and Met Office and improved modelling of all forms of flooding”;
• “The Environment Agency receives a wider brief and councils asked to strengthen their technical capability in order to take the lead on local flood risk management. More can be done to protect communities through robust building and planning controls”;
• “Better planning and higher levels of protection for critical infrastructure are needed to avoid the loss of essential services such as water and power. There must be greater involvement of private sector companies in planning to keep people safe in the event of a dam or reservoir failure. Generally, we must be more open about risk”;
• “We can learn from good experience abroad. People would benefit from better advice on how to protect their families and homes. We believe that levels of awareness should be raised through education and publicity programmes” [1]

In response to the Pitt review, a number of measures have been enacted. The Environment Agency has been working closely with local authorities on the six first edition Surface Water Management plans, which were funded by Defra. This has been supported by their work to develop tools and techniques to model surface water flooding. This level of information and detail is available for local authorities and emergency planners across England and Wales. It is being used, in conjunction with local knowledge, to identify areas susceptible to surface water flooding and define the need for further work to understand surface water flooding [2].

As a result of the Pitt Review’s recommendations, many consultations and studies were undertaken to improve surface water and flood risk management, including Defra’s Consultation on improving surface water drainage and work on surface water management plans. Supporting Defra’s new guidance, documents such as PPS25: Development and flood risk – practice guide were introduced. The practice guide is complementary to Planning Policy Statement 25: Development and Flood Risk (PPS25) and provides guidelines on how to implement development and flood risk policies by the land use planning system. The guide also includes working examples through case studies. This edition replaces the earlier version of the Practice Guide published on 12 June 2008. This Practice Guide (at Appendix B) contains a checklist to help developers and applicants to prepare an appropriate, site-specific flood risk assessment in accordance with the policy in PPS25, and the advice in the Practice Guide. The document is available for download by clicking here: 

[1] Lessons Learned from the summer 2007 Floods (2007). Pitt, M.
[2] The Government’s Response to Sir Michael Pitt's Review of the summer 2007 Floods (2009)

Severe Winter Weather Events

In December 2010, the Government Office for Science was asked for its advice on the probability of severe winter weather over the next two to three decades, in order to inform infrastructure investment decisions. In response, analysis was commissioned from the Met Office, looking at recent winter weather in the context of both past observations and future projections. The prevailing conclusion of this analysis however, was that it was not currently possible to quantify, with any certainty, the number of severe winter weathers which the UK could expect in the forthcoming decades [1] (Beddington, 2010).

In December 2010, the Met Office produced its briefing on the likelihood of severe winter weather over the next 20-30 years. It produced the following headline points that:

• Prolonged snowfall and low temperatures, comparable with conditions seen during November and December 2010 are within range of natural climate variability observed over the past 50 years;
• Comparable spells of snowfall and cold weather have been observed in parts of England during 8 winters since 1960;
• Over England, in terms of snowfall and cold weather, the winter of 2009/10 was the most severe for some 28 years;
• The latest regional climate projections for the UK (UKCP09) indicate a reducing likelihood of severe winters in future, due to the long-term warming climate. Natural climate variability implies that severe events remain possible, but with reduced likelihood; 
• However, there are significant known uncertainties and limitations in our ability to predict the likelihood of severe winters in future using the UKCP09 results;
• More sophisticated modelling approaches, such as developing the skill of decadal prediction are required and in progress at the Met Office [2] (Slingo, 2010).

Therefore, despite consecutive years of severe winter weather, this evidence suggests that weather in the UK is likely to remain unpredictable for the foreseeable future.

The occurrence of one or two cold winters is not necessarily a good indicator of a further cold winter. European winter temperatures have generally been increasing over the last couple of decades, in line with a gradual warming predicted by climate models as greenhouse gases increase. The probability of severe winters is therefore expected to decrease, along with a gradual increase in the temperature of the typical coldest day of winter as projected by the latest UK regional climate projections (Slingo, 2010). 

So, if the weather in the UK is to continue to be erratic, stronger reliance must be given to our ability to predict severe weather events and react to these accordingly to ensure that the UK’s towns and cities function as best as reasonably possible, and that movement is facilitated during spells of adverse and unpredictable weather.  This will involve not just the ability to clear and grit the roads and pathways as quickly as possible to allow the movement of people and goods, but also involves the messages portrayed to the public by national, regional and local authorities and media (See sections on public communications and expectations for further details).

[1] Sir John Beddington’s letter to Secretary of State, (2010) Government Office for Science
[2] Slingo, J. (2010), Briefing on the likelihood of severe winter weather over the next 20-30 years. Met Office.