Post-2020 energy scenarios and pathways to 2030

The UK’s energy system in 2030 needs to look very different to today’s. The energy we use in electricity generation, heat and transport is responsible for most of our greenhouse gas emissions, most notably carbon dioxide – this must change.

Download ICE Energy 2030 report

A secure and affordable supply

A decarbonised 2030 requires action on a large scale during the 2020s. The Committee on Climate Change envisages a “pace of progress … significantly faster than that required to meet carbon budgets in the 2010s”. But the Department of Energy & Climate Change 2011 Carbon Plan recognises that, “By 2020, we will complete the ‘easy wins’”. Policy to require and enable more rapid change must be put in place in this decade.

As well as enduring security of supply and maintaining affordability, those policies must deal with challenges of political will and policy certainty, technological development and delivery, as well as public attitudes - all of which are critical factors in the transition to a low carbon society.

Engineers informing policy

The transition is a huge undertaking – but engineers can deliver. Scenarios of a decarbonised future already exist but need to be used to inform practical policy. ICE explored several scenarios for 2030 and identified the imperatives, choices, assumptions and uncertainties that policymakers must tackle in the near future. Our research highlights the importance of:

  • Policy consistency
  • Driving delivery
  • Demand reduction and management
  • Binding targets
  • Measures to protect vulnerable consumers

In addition, there are more specific policy pathways required for each of electricity generation, heat and transport. Read the full report to find out more.