There is scientific consensus today that human emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) have exerted – and continue to do so – a substantial warming influence on the climate system since the start of the industrial era (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC WG1, 2007). Much of the GHG emissions from developed countries come from the transport sector including the UK where it represents 26% of total GHG emissions.
The Stern Report[1]confirmed that emissions have been and continue to be driven by economic growth. It is also found that the stabilisation of the atmospheric concentration of GHG is consistent with continued growth. The response to be achieved will clearly rely on the adoption of government policies and concentrated efforts to mitigate GHG emissions and adapt to climate change risks.
The UK Climate Projections, launched in the summer of 2009 (UKCP09) have shown changes in the recent observed climate and a certain degree of commitment to future climatic changes due to our past emissions of greenhouse gases (Jenkins et al, 2009; Murphy et al 2009). These include projected rising temperatures, wetter winters, drier summers and an increased frequency of extreme weather events. Such changing weather patterns and extreme events in the UK have clearly underlined the need to address climate change risks and progress the Government’s cross-cutting ‘Adapting to Climate Change Programme’.
Transport professionals particularly involved with the maintenance of key infrastructure are beginning to understand the potential implications of climate change first hand. While no single weather event can yet be attributed to climate change, there is evidence that climate change has increased the risk of extreme weather events (Stott et al., 2006).
Media coverage of climate related events ensures society sees the immediate implications of weather related events (such as flooding and storms) through the damage suffered. But, what of the wider risk implications for those professionals with the responsibility for planning, designing, building, operating and maintaining transportation infrastructure and assets across the world, especially in the UK where legislation on climate change now exists?
Information on the potential risks of climate change for transport infrastructure is available and indicates that in some locations and for some assets climate-associated costs may be significant (for an example, see Larsen et al., 2007). Physical investments to increase infrastructure resilience to future climate may be justified either because they present a high net present value or because they represent a ‘no regret’ or ‘low cost’ action.
However, in order to support the engineering understanding and knowledge, it is suggested that social and environmental risks (and their consequential financial implications) are also accounted for[2]
[1]
“Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change”, Sir Nicholas Stern, HM Treasury, 2006.
[2]
Adapting for Climate Change: H J Parry .J-C Amado CIHT Transportation Professional 2010