A review of the use of complex systems applied to risk appetite and emerging risks in Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)

This paper applies systems thinking to help define a company's appetite for risk and subsequently assess difficult to quantify risks in a rigorous manner. The method looks at interconnections and integrating qualitative and quantitative measures.

Neil Allan's paper 'A review of the use of complex systems applied to risk appetite and emerging risks in Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)'
Neil Allan's paper 'A review of the use of complex systems applied to risk appetite and emerging risks in Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)'

Who wrote this?

This was presented at the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in 2011 by Neil Allan, Neil Cantle, Professor Patrick Godfrey and Dr Yun Yin.

When?

It was first published in 28 November 2011.

Why?

To apply new thinking and techniques from complex systems science to risk management and governance. Traditional risk management simplifies risk too much.

Who should read this?

Anyone who is involved in risk management 

Content

This 76-page paper gives a methodology for integrating Concept Mapping and Bayesian Networks in a systems thinking approach, which can be used for judging risk appetite and emerging risks. It also gives a glossary of relevant terms in systems thinking and risk management.

For more information and questions, please contact management@ice.org.uk.

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