Decision making under uncertainty in the water sector, London

27 April, 2017 | 18:30 - 20:00

Thames Barrier, London.
Thames Barrier, London.

About this event

Adaptive and flexible water resources capacity infrastructure planning under climate change uncertainty

Speaker: Dr Tohid Erfani, University College London

There is an increasing awareness that freshwater resources are limited and water availability is expected to decrease in many regions. Planning for water resources infrastructure is an essential process to meet the growing populations demand for water.

However, development of such optimal plans is complex; crucial investment decisions which have to be made in the present need to account for the needs of a future which is largely unknown. Climate change is the main source of supply uncertainty and its impact on source yields is deeply uncertain. Adaption is increasingly being suggested as a way to account for the uncertainty in planning for future water infrastructure.

Since present decisions can impact the ability to adapt the system to future needs, flexibility should be considered in the option programme appraisal process. This presentation reviews the existing approaches in dealing with climate uncertainty in water infrastructure modelling and presents an adaptive and flexible technique for London's Thames water infrastructure planning of supply-demand deficit.

The Thames Estuary 2100 Plan - an adaptive pathways approach in action

Speaker: Katy Francis, Environment Agency

In the Thames estuary, an adaptive pathways approach sits at the heart of the long term plan for managing tidal flood risk to the end of the century, the Thames Estuary 2100 Plan. The first review of the monitoring indicators associated with the Plan is now complete, showing how the Estuary is changing and reminding us of the need to prepare for the future to ensure that communities and businesses retain a high level of protection.

Monitoring is fundamental to the success of applying the adaptive pathways approach and this presentation will describe how this work is being pursued in the Thames estuary.


There is no charge to attend this meeting and both BHS members and non-members are welcome. No registration is required.