Recent and future developments in earthquake ground motion estimation, London

25 May, 2016 | 18:00 - 20:00

Recent and future developments in earthquake ground motion estimation, London

About this event

In the past decade the derivation and use of GMPEs within seismic hazard assessments have undergone significant improvements but there remain challenges in ground-motion prediction.

This presentation will provide an overview of recent developments which include: improvements in the estimation of the ground-motion variability and its components; a move away from simple regression-based curve fitting; attempts at using non-parametric techniques; the use of much more and better (e.g. in terms of site characterization) data; attempts at including additional independent parameters; a better appreciation of epistemic uncertainty; extensions of spectral models to shorter and longer structural periods using individually-processed records; a more careful consideration of how the models perform at small and large magnitudes; and making the models easier to use within seismic hazard assessments.

Finally, the presenter will provide his viewpoint on possible future directions in ground-motion estimation.

Non-members of the society are welcome to attend.
Please note that there is no charge to attend.

Seats are allocated on a first come, first served basis.
Tea and biscuits will be served from 5.30pm - 6pm.


For further information please contact Greg James, Associated Societies Executive, at the ICE on: +44 (0) 20 7665 2229020 7665 2229 or email:

Visit the SECED website at

Event materials

The following materials are available for download:


Dr John Douglas

Dr John Douglas is a Chancellor's Fellow (Lecturer) at the University of Strathclyde (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering). Previously he was an engineering seismologist at BRGM (the French Geological Survey) from September 2004 to May 2015.

During a sabbatical year (2009-2010) he was a Visiting Professor at the Earthquake Engineering Research Centre (University of Iceland).

Since his PhD at Imperial College (1998-2001), Dr Douglas has maintained a global compendium of ground-motion models, which has been available online since 2014 (

Much of his research is focused on improving these models. His research has led to the publication of over 70 articles in international peer-reviewed journals.

In addition, he has been involved in a number of seismic hazard assessments for high-value infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants, as well as participating in working groups for the International Atomic Energy Agency (concerning a technical document on seismic hazard assessments for nuclear installations) and the European Committee for Standardization (concerning the update of Eurocode 8).