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Anthony Hammond will explore the methods available for estimating and evaluating uncertainty in flood estimates, drawing from his work within the Environment Agency's Modelling and Forecasting team.
The talk will expand examples of statistical sources of error, the need for quantification of uncertainty and methods currently available. How the current guidance methods are used will be discussed with examples of their application, raising questions whether this shows that practice up to now has been appropriate for resulting flood estimates.
Applications of old and updated methods will be discussed including the use of and the impact of applying statistical uncertainty in existing freeboard guidance, the newly released FEH local – reducing statistical uncertainty and the recent replacement for the freeboard guidance, 'Residual uncertainty Allowance'.
The talk is aimed at those who wish to dip in or learn about the issue of statistical uncertainty, methods and their application as well as practitioners. Comments and discussion will be welcome from all.
There is no charge to attend this meeting and both BHS members and non-members are welcome.
No registration is required.
The following materials are available for download: