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Development of a new ground-motion model for the UK using the hybrid empirical-stochastic method

Event organised by Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics

28 February 2024

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During this lecture, the results of a project funded by the Royal Academy of Engineering and in collaboration with Jacobs will be presented.

In this project, we developed a new UK ground-motion model using a state-of-the-art method (hybrid empirical-stochastic method) and UK data. Capturing of the considerable epistemic uncertainties in ground-motion prediction for the UK, where data are sparse, was a particular focus of our project. 

This model will contribute towards a better characterisation (prediction) of earthquake induced ground shakings, which are a key input for the development of seismic hazard maps and for the seismic safety evaluation of critical infrastructure such as nuclear power plants.

Additionally, we sought to facilitate the use of the model in future seismic hazard assessments by providing simplified backbone representations of the model. We will present a summary of the project and the impact of the new model on assessed seismic hazard for some typical UK sites.

Organised by

The Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics

The Society for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics

SECED promotes the study and practice of earthquake and civil engineering dynamics, including blast, impact, and other vibration problems.


Dr John Douglas

Dr John Douglas

University of Strathclyde

Senior Lecturer

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Dr John Douglas

Dr John Douglas is a senior lecturer at the University of Strathclyde (Glasgow, UK) working in the fields of seismic hazard and risk evaluation. He has been consultant to various seismic hazard assessments for critical infrastructure (e.g. Hinkley Point C).

Previously (2004-2015) Dr Douglas was a senior engineering seismologist at BRGM (French Geological Survey). From 2009 to 2014 he was a visiting professor at the Earthquake Engineering Research Centre, University of Iceland.

He obtained his Ph.D in Civil and Environmental Engineering (Engineering Seismology) in 2001, following a B.Sc. Hons (First Class) degree in Mathematics (both from Imperial College London, UK). In 2010, he was awarded his accreditation to supervise research (Habilitation à diriger des recherches) in seismology by the University of Grenoble (France).

For more information please contact:

Shelly-Ann Russell

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