Development of a new ground-motion model for the UK using the hybrid empirical-stochastic method

Overview

During this lecture, the results of a project funded by the Royal Academy of Engineering and in collaboration with Jacobs will be presented.

In this project, we developed a new UK ground-motion model using a state-of-the-art method (hybrid empirical-stochastic method) and UK data. Capturing of the considerable epistemic uncertainties in ground-motion prediction for the UK, where data are sparse, was a particular focus of our project. 

This model will contribute towards a better characterisation (prediction) of earthquake induced ground shakings, which are a key input for the development of seismic hazard maps and for the seismic safety evaluation of critical infrastructure such as nuclear power plants.

Additionally, we sought to facilitate the use of the model in future seismic hazard assessments by providing simplified backbone representations of the model. We will present a summary of the project and the impact of the new model on assessed seismic hazard for some typical UK sites.