Though it’s made significant progress, the UK still lacks realistic plans to meet its future emissions targets.
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has published its annual report on the UK’s progress towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions.
In summary: the UK is still off track.
Despite many successes, policy gaps and inconsistent messaging continue to hold back efforts.
The report covers progress under the previous Conservative government. It will be for the new Labour government to act on its recommendations.
Here are five key takeaways:
1. The UK has made significant progress
The report emphasises the UK’s successful track record of decarbonisation.
Emissions have fallen by over half since 1990. The UK has met all its targets so far across successive governments.
It actually overachieved in the most recent (third) carbon budget, reducing emissions more than expected.
But the government agreed not to carry forward these savings to future carbon budgets – keeping targets ambitious for the emission reductions ahead.
And 2023 saw a “significant increase” in the rate of decarbonisation.
This was largely due to lower demand for gas, which may in part reflect high prices.
But emissions in all sectors are now lower than before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Lower technology costs have also played a part. And some changes in how people use key services, such as transport, have continued after the pandemic.
Maintaining progress
This progress is fragile. Positive trends could reverse without strong policies to build on them.
Only electricity supply has maintained the pace needed in emissions cuts over multiple years – mainly through phasing out coal.
Meeting future targets will mean rapidly upping the pace across all parts of the economy.
2. Labour must be clear and consistent
The CCC applauds the previous government for measures including the zero-emission vehicle mandate and the boiler upgrade scheme.
But overall, its net zero policies and plans were “insufficient”.
Delays and inconsistent messaging held up progress at a key time.
The UK should now be in “a phase of rapid investment and delivery”.
Instead, it’s off track to meet its 2030 target of reducing emissions by 68% from 1990 levels:
- only a third of required emissions reductions have credible plans,
- of the CCC’s 27 priority recommendations in 2023, only two have seen ‘good progress’
- “no progress” has been made on 12 priority recommendations
- the UK is behind on low-carbon technology and nature-based solutions
It means the new Labour government must “act fast”.
The CCC calls for “long-term consistent messages” for businesses and households, backed by policies to support investment and remove barriers.
Some measures already announced by the new government directly address the CCC’s priority actions, such as enabling new onshore wind projects in England.
Adaptation must be a greater priority
“Effective and integrated adaptation action” is essential to deliver net zero.
The effects of climate change are becoming more severe.
But the UK’s Third National Adaptation Programme (NAP3) lacks the vision and urgency to address them.
Strengthening it is a priority.
3. Electric vehicles are having an impact
Surface transport emissions fell slightly in 2023, despite higher traffic levels.
It shows the rapid uptake of electric cars is starting to have a measurable impact on emissions.
However, the market share of new electric cars stagnated last year.
The previous government’s decision to push back the end-of-sales date for new petrol and diesel cars caused confusion.
Van traffic is also too high, and sales of electric vans remain significantly off-track.
Other transport policy concerns include:
- delays to local transport plan guidance;
- inconsistency between revised roads policy and the UK’s emissions objectives; and
- the redistribution of some High Speed 2 funding to road-building schemes.
4. Buildings emission policies worsen
Policy changes under the previous government could seriously harm the UK’s ability to reach its buildings emissions targets.
These include exempting 20% of households from the phase-out of fossil-fuel boilers by 2035.
By 2030, approximately 10% of existing homes in the UK will need a heat pump, compared to around 1% which have one today.
The rise in annual installations is off-track – climbing from 58,000 to just over 60,000 in 2023.
But the last government’s decision to raise grants for heat pumps in homes from £5,000 to £7,500 has led to a significant increase in uptake in recent months.
Building momentum also depends on rapidly increasing the number of trained installers.
Energy efficiency misses
The previous government also missed opportunities to reduce energy bills during the cost-of-living crisis by removing efficiency requirements for rented homes.
Energy efficiency installations are moving in the wrong direction. They fell in 2023, having already been significantly off track in 2022.
The CCC calls for reversing recent rollbacks alongside better support for people to choose low-carbon options.
The ICE has explored how to achieve this in a policy paper on enabling public behavioural changes.
5. Fast energy decarbonisation lacks credible plans
The last government made some positive steps towards planning for the future energy system.
It committed to publishing the UK’s first Strategic Spatial Energy Plan – which Labour have said it will take forward.
But the CCC warns there still isn't a credible overall strategy for decarbonising the sector at pace – which Labour aims to achieve by 2030.
Annual offshore wind installations must increase by at least three times, onshore wind installations need to double, and solar installations increase by five times.
But 2023 saw little new offshore wind capacity and no bids for new projects in the latest Contracts for Difference auction round.
The previous government announced pricing changes for future auction rounds. But the CCC warns they may not be enough.
It also calls for electricity prices to be reduced to reflect the true, low running costs of efficient, low-carbon technologies.
The ICE’s view
The CCC’s latest progress report paints another worrying picture of the UK’s ability to meet its climate targets.
Overall progress to date has been impressive.
But the successes underline the importance of clear policies and messaging.
In all sectors, delays, reversals, and inconsistent messaging have undermined progress.
With the roll out of many low-carbon technologies behind schedule, the new government must focus on public behaviour changes and removing barriers to change.
More detail is needed on the legislation the government has proposed in the King's Speech.
But it’s encouraging to see the scope and ambition of its plans for energy, transport and planning reform.
