Fewer potholes but more traffic jams – the future of England's roads

England’s Strategic Road Network (SRN) is as core to daily life as water and energy.

Made up of 4,500 miles of motorways and A-roads, it carries around a third of all traffic in the country. It connects people to jobs, to goods, and to one another.

But the network is ageing. Bridges, aqueducts, safety barriers, and pavements are reaching the end of their life. Upgrading and maintaining these assets is essential.

At the end of March, the government published its third road investment strategy (RIS3): the long-awaited set of priorities (and associated funding) for the operator, National Highways, to deliver over the next five years.

So, what does RIS3 cover?

A balanced range of priorities

First, the good stuff.

RIS3 continues an excellent discipline started with RIS1 in 2014, setting out a balanced range of priorities for National Highways – not just a list of big glamorous projects.

It’s this process that has seen unprecedented investment in road safety, environmental improvement, and asset management. And it holds National Highways accountable for all the boring stuff like day-to-day maintenance standards and service performance.

Excellent too is that RIS3 continues the trend of five-year funding settlements. Until 2015, annual settlements meant the operator – and industry – had little visibility of investment levels from one year to the next.

Five-year settlements are more efficient, improve confidence, and incentivise longer-term decisions.

RIS3 goes big on asset renewal…

It’s very clear that renewal of existing infrastructure, including some substantial engineering assets, is top priority.

This is great to hear, and consistent with the recommendations of the National Engineering Policy Centre’s 2025 ageing infrastructure report and the ICE’s State of the Nation 2025.

Beyond core improvements, wider investment continues through designated funds. This includes safety, environmental improvements, research and innovation, and cyclist and pedestrian access.

…but capital improvements are limited

RIS3 focuses on restoring infrastructure. But off the list are big capital improvement projects that would increase network capacity – except for the proposed Lower Thames Crossing.

Notably, and possibly not unexpectedly, the government will build no new smart motorways in the next five years.

Previous strategies introduced smart motorways to improve capacity without needing to widen roads.

With no proposals to revive conventional motorway widening, accommodating growing traffic volumes will depend solely on smaller local improvement projects, and some further deployment of traffic management technology.

As such, I’m really pleased to see National Highways charged with improving the reliability of its traffic technology equipment, and with modernising some of the older digital systems that make it work.

The Lower Thames Crossing

The strategy reaffirms the government’s commitment to funding the Lower Thames Crossing, a vital new part of the network.

The total ringfenced budget of £1.66bn will complete the publicly funded works, enabling the private sector to take over construction and long-term operation.

The use of a Regulated Asset Base (RAB) model, which guarantees a stable return over the lifetime of the asset, is welcome, as it lowers the risk for investors.

That said, it’s important that the route is operated in a manner that’s fully integrated with the rest of the SRN.

Experience of the hopelessly underused Midland Expressway (M6 Toll) well illustrates the dangers of allowing a high-value, high-capacity part of the network to be managed wholly independently.

Raising safety standards

I welcome the continuing push on safety performance.

After decades of strong improvement, safety has plateaued, with the number of people killed or seriously injured on UK roads remaining broadly steady for over 10 years.

Adopting the globally proven International Road Assessment Programme (iRAP) approach is welcome too.

A network under strain

In all, there’s a lot to welcome in this strategy: especially its emphasis on maintenance and renewal.

But there’s plenty to worry about, too.

It’s only a five-year strategy, where other sectors are increasingly looking 20 years or more ahead. And it really does take a head-in-the-sand approach to the thorny issue of capacity.

The government expects a 12% growth in total traffic volume over the next nine years.

When you consider too the likely impact of urban growth to meet housing demand, we see a network under growing strain – and no credible plans to either increase capacity or reduce demand.

Asking National Highways only to keep the network functioning as it is against that background of rising pressure is, to put it mildly, a brave leap of faith.

A lapse back into short-termism?

I can’t close without a final observation: that this strategy is late. Very late.

The government took the reasonable decision when it was elected to defer RIS3 while it got its policy priorities straight. Time has marched on, though.

Efficiency and strong delivery come from giving the regulator – the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) – time to review the strategy and National Highways’ delivery plan.

As it is, the five-year period will have started before that delivery plan appears, and well before the supply chain can mobilise.

The transport act of 2015 set up a great model: proper, long-term planning for what I consider to be the UK’s most important transport network.

This government and the next will now have to be careful to ensure a drift back to short-term planning doesn’t erode that crucial advantage.

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