Is the UK on track to reach net zero? 5 takeaways from 2025 progress report

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has published its annual report on the UK’s progress towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions.

It's more positive than some recent assessments.

But there are still outstanding policy questions that need urgent answers.

Here are five key takeaways:

1. 2030 target is “within reach”

Emissions in the UK have more than halved since 1990. Last year was the tenth consecutive year of continued reductions, excluding the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021.

It means the UK’s target of cutting down emissions by 68% on 1990 levels by 2030 is “within reach”, as long as the government stays the course.

In the CCC’s assessment, it’s started well following last year’s election:

• There’s more policy clarity, like the Clean Power 2030 Action Plan.
• Key barriers in the planning system have been removed, particularly around onshore wind and heat pumps.
• Policies developed by previous governments have been implemented, notably the Clean Heat Market Mechanism.

And the CCC notes that past governments’ early investments in low-carbon technologies, when they were more expensive, should now start to pay-off as costs fall.

No room for complacency

There’s a note of caution though.

The UK’s overall progress has been mainly through decarbonising electricity.

Future progress – over 80% of emissions savings up to 2030 – must come from sectors outside energy supply.

The pace of reductions in those sectors must almost double towards the end of this decade.

But a large part (39%) of reductions required by 2030 still face significant risks or are based on plans that lack enough detail or specific emissions savings.

2. Sustained progress for transport emissions

Emissions from surface transport fell for the second year in a row.

Primarily, this was because electric vehicles (EVs) are now having “a measurable and rapidly growing effect”:

• The number of electric cars on the road is doubling roughly every two years, and the CCC expects further rapid progress.
• EVs will likely cost the same as petrol and diesel cars by 2026-2028.
• Public charge point installations increased by nearly 40% last year.

It suggests the Zero Emission Vehicle mandate is working.

However, recent changes to the mandate risk underestimating future emissions. Manufacturers could base savings on estimates of how much driving is done in electric mode in hybrid cars.

With surface transport contributing almost 30% of the emissions reduction required for the 2030 target, EV uptake will be key.

The CCC also notes that the UK’s progress was partially offset by an increase in emissions from flying. Continued growth in aviation emissions would put future targets at risk.

3. A clear plan for energy

The Clean Power 2030 Action Plan was an important step, providing a clear strategy for decarbonising Britain’s electricity system.

Some key barriers to achieving clean energy are being addressed.

Ongoing reforms should speed up approvals for new infrastructure, prioritise the right projects and reduce delays for grid connections, and ensure more integrated long-term planning.

The total roll-out of offshore and onshore wind and solar capacity increased in 2024 by more than the increase seen in any of the previous six years.

Offshore and onshore wind are on track with a strong project pipeline to add capacity, even allowing for the Hornsea 4 offshore wind project cancellation.

Contracts for Difference round six was successful – but the next two to three rounds are crucial for delivering the Clean Power 2030 Action Plan.

Solar energy capacity, on the other hand, is “significantly” off track.

4. Heat pump concerns

One of the main concerns in the report is about heat pumps.

On the positive side, there was a significant increase (56%) in installations last year.

More government support and incentives, alongside the removal of some planning barriers are working.

However, only around 1% of homes in the UK have a heat pump, among the lowest in Europe.

Providing confidence and certainty to scale-up their roll-out is a priority. In particular:

• Electricity remains too expensive for households to feel the benefits of heat pumps’ greater efficiency.
• Funding for the Boiler Upgrade Scheme remains uncertain beyond 2028.
• The government’s position on the planned 2035 phase-out date for new fossil fuel boiler installations is unclear.

The upcoming Warm Homes Plan is crucial to help the market grow.

5. More needed on skills and public engagement

A skills strategy is another priority action for the government – particularly in areas like heat pumps.

The new Office for Clean Energy Jobs and its work with Skills England show progress.

The government has announced a net zero skills plan in due course.

The CCC says this must include a full assessment of when and where there will be skills gaps specific to net zero – and how the government will support workers in those sectors.

The report also welcomes progress in providing consumer-focused information about low-carbon household technologies, like heat pumps and EVs – which the ICE has long called for.

The government has committed to publishing a Public Participation Strategy in 2025 on how it will further engage and support households.