The UK must learn from other nations to solve systemic problems, said Mark Wild in a candid presentation.
The UK has lost its “competitive edge in the efficient execution of large railway projects”, according to the CEO of High Speed 2.
Mark Wild issued this verdict while giving the Smeaton Lecture, which the ICE hosts annually on behalf of the Smeatonian Society of Civil Engineers.
His presentation traced the varied impacts of railway-building on the nation since Robert Stephenson invented his seminal locomotive, Rocket, in 1829.
“Looking back at what we’ve gained and lost in two centuries, it’s clear to me that we need to learn from the rest of the world,” Wild said.
Fundamental problems to solve
The British rail sector must do this, he argued, to tackle two key factors that have harmed its competitiveness. The first is short-termism at a strategic level.
“Nothing erodes confidence more than instability and broken promises,” noted Wild, who became HS2’s fourth non-interim CEO in December 2024.
“Long-term planning is essential, allowing time to develop modular solutions, the workforce and appropriate technology.”
Solving this problem should help with the second one: a widespread skills shortage.
“The gap we face with engineering across the whole of infrastructure is the biggest single impediment,” he said. “There’s plenty to do.”
What sent HS2 off track
Wild spoke frankly about HS2’s cost overruns, noting that inaccurate budgeting isn’t a new feature of railway construction.
Wild observed that optimism bias – “overestimating simplicity; underestimating cost” – has plagued megaprojects including the Channel Tunnel and Crossrail, as well as HS2.
“The HS2 planners just didn’t fully understand the engineering challenge and the barriers in the way,” he admitted. “They were doing the very best they could with the tools available, but we need new mechanisms to deal with uncertainty.”
Wild went on to challenge the idea that reliable estimates are unachievable.
“What cannot endure is our tolerance of getting estimates wrong all the time… As engineers, we’ve got to get the estimation right,” he said.
“Sometimes I hear a sigh of: ‘Well, you know, Mark – major projects always go wrong.’ That is disrespectful to the taxpayers, the government and the people who are striving so hard in this country.”
Less haste, more speed
One of Wild’s key points was that devoting more time to planning should pay dividends at the delivery stage.
HS2 had broken ground “too early, with approximately 15% of the design and hardly any geotechnical completed. Also, the commercial structure wasn’t right – contractors simply couldn’t price the risk.”
At the ensuing Q&A session, Wild advocated “increasing the fidelity of design to… minimise uncertainty and get the risk balance right. Unfortunately, that’s uncommon – people tend to rush to the price to get spades in the ground.”
But he concluded with an upbeat message about his project.
“My job is to reset HS2, rebuild confidence and get a grip,” Wild said. “I’m super confident that HS2 will be a success when we get there.”
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